Fred Wellman
October 27, 2026 · Newsletter
The numbers don’t lie: Missouri is in play
No one can deny the strength of this people-powered campaign anymore.
I’m aware the polls can be wrong. I know to take numbers with a grain of salt. The only true poll that matters is the one folks go to on Election Day.
But I can’t deny what we’re seeing is nothing short of remarkable.
The first poll was from the Public Policy Institute:
MO-02, Public Policy Polling, Oct. 18-20
🔵Fred Wellman: 46%
🔴Ann Wagner: 45%
Then the next one came in from Emerson College:
MO-02, Emerson College, Oct. 12-14
🔵Fred Wellman: 51%
🔴Ann Wagner: 46%
Now, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Nate Silver’s Bulletin, and Fox News have all shifted this race in our favor!
Nate Silver’s Bulletin ranked every competitive House race in the country.
We’re #1.
That’s right. We’re on the verge of flipping a district that every pollster and pundit called a reach just a few weeks ago. But Nate’s model still has us trailing Ann Wagner by 0.1%.
It means this race is going to come down to a few hundred votes on Election Day.
Ann Wagner is trying to send in the cavalry at the last possible moment.
She’s trying to choreograph meet-and-greets and door knocks. She’s scrambling to make last-minute interviews and proclaims that she shows up for Missouri when it counts.
Ann Wagner thinks we’re suckers. She’s spent nearly 14 years in Congress, and in that time quadrupled her personal wealth while hosting zero town halls.
As Chairwoman of the subcommittee on Capital Markets, she oversaw the very same corporations she’s now profiting from. She has voted with Trump 100% of the time, supporting his Big Billionaire Bill which is about to cut 270,000 Missourians off from their healthcare.
And from Concord to Wildwood, her constituents have been demanding answers from Ann. We compiled a list of letters to the editor from residents of Missouri’s 2nd District, and all of them say the same thing: Ann Wagner doesn’t look out for us.
She doesn’t take questions. She doesn’t want any accountability. She just wants to sit back, relax, pour millions of dollars into attack ads, and win. The second our Emerson College poll was made public, an outside group poured $640,000 into the race to prop up Ann. That’s why we’re being outspent by over $1,000,000 while outraising her by $250,000.
I’ve said this from day one: It’s people-power versus those at the top.
What you can do to help us win.
We’ve hosted 13 town halls and a candidate forum in just the past year.
That’s not even counting the dozens of events, parades, and rallies we have attended! We showed up for Missouri every day of this election cycle.
This campaign has truly done something unthinkable and made this race a toss-up. Built by the people of Missouri, for the people of Missouri, we’re just a few hundred votes away from making history and flipping this seat blue.
But I need your help to pull us ahead in the home stretch.
I need to buy my last few ads of the cycle. I need to send out one more batch of mailers. I need to keep funding our expansive ground game to knock on doors and make phone calls non-stop.
My team tells me we need a last-minute fundraising boost to continue this campaign at full strength.
So I could really use your help when it counts.
Early voting is underway, and with just a handful of undecided voters left, there’s no margin for error. We don’t have much more time to make a difference, so please chip in whatever you can and make one final contribution to this movement.
Yours in this fight,
Fred Wellman
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